Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for October to December shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be above average across much of the west and central regions, below average in the far north and south-east.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average across Australia.

Rainfall—Summary

Above average rainfall likely for much of the west and central regions, below average in the far north and south-east.

October to December

• There is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall¹ (50 to 80% chance) across much of southern and central parts of Western Australia and some southern parts of the Northern Territory. Select your location on the map for more localised information.
• Below average rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) for much of southern and eastern Victoria, Tasmania, and northern parts of the Northern Territory's Top End and Cape York Peninsula in Queensland.
• For much of eastern Australia and parts of the north, there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall for October to December.
• During this outlook period, northern Australia typically experiences increasing humidity, storms, and showers.
• For October alone, there is a broader dry signal for north-east Australia while the wet signal is less pronounced over in the west.
• October to December rainfall is likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above average across most of the western half of Australia extending into parts of Queensland and New South Wales. The wet signal in the east emerges later in the outlook period.
• The ACCESS-S rainfall forecast is consistent with international guidance, although there is slight variation between models in the likelihood of above average rainfall.

¹Unusually low/high rainfall is that in the driest/wettest 20% of October to December records between 1981 and 2018.

Temperature—Summary

Above average temperatures likely across much of Australia for the remainder of 2026

October to December

• Minimum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) to be above average across almost all of Australia.
• The chance of unusually high minimum temperatures² is exceptionally high (over 80% chance) for much of the country. This is more than 4 times the normal likelihood
• October to December maximum temperatures are likely to be above average (60% to greater than 80% chance) across most of Australia except in some isolated parts of the tropical north.
• There is an increased likelihood (over 50% chance) of unusually high maximum temperatures² across much of the southern two-thirds of Australia, with the highest chances (over 80%) across small parts of south-west Western Australia, eastern parts of South Australia, south-west Queensland, and most of New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania.
• The ACCESS-S forecast for temperatures is consistent with international models. There is some variation in the likelihood of above average temperatures over the Top End and Cape York Peninsula.

²Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of October to December days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• El Niño is at near-record levels. Both oceanic and atmospheric indices reflect values consistent with a strong El Niño.
• All models, including the bureau's, forecast the tropical Pacific to continue warming through the southern hemisphere spring, with El Niño likely peaking in late spring or summer as a very strong event.
• A strong El Niño signal in the tropical Pacific does not necessarily mean strong impacts on Australia's rainfall and temperature; ENSO is only one of many factors that can influence Australia’s seasonal weather and climate.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral although recent index values have been above the positive IOD threshold. Models suggest a positive IOD is likely to develop during the southern hemisphere spring, although there is still uncertainty in the strength and duration of the event.
• The SST analysis for the week ending 27 September 2026 shows warmer than average waters around most of Australia's west, south and south-east. SSTs to Australia's north and north-east have cooled in recent weeks and are now below average in some areas.
• Sea surface temperatures in the Australian region are forecast to warm over the coming months, particularly to Australia's west. Warmer waters can enhance atmospheric moisture and energy that can fuel storms and rain systems, increasing potential for high intensity rainfall.
• Global SSTs remain at record levels. In August 2026, SSTs averaged across 60°S to 60°N reached their highest level on record for any month since records began in 1900, at 1.04 °C above the 1961–1990 average in the NOAA ERSSTv5 dataset.