Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for April to June shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be below average for most of Australia, and above average over parts of the tropical north.
• Daytime temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of Australia.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average for much of Australia.

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Rainfall—Summary

Below average April to June rainfall likely for most of Australia

April to June

• Rainfall for the 3-month period from April to June is likely to be below average (60% to more than 80% chance) for most of Australia.
• Parts of far northern Queensland are likely to have above average April to June rainfall (60% to 80% chance), with the highest chances occurring in April.
• Elsewhere, including parts of western and central Western Australia and south-western Tasmania, there is no clear signal for either wetter or drier conditions, meaning there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
• There is an increased chance of unusually low rainfall¹ (over 50% chance) for large parts of the Murray Darling Basin, eastern Tasmania, and north-west Australia.
• May marks the beginning of the northern Australian dry season, when most of the tropical north typically receives very little rainfall. Over these areas, average monthly rainfall totals for May and June are usually less than 5 mm.

¹Unusually low rainfall is that in the driest 20% of April to June records between 1981 and 2018.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer than average days and nights across much of Australia

April to June

• Maximum temperatures for April to June are very likely to be above average (more than 80% chance) across much of Australia.
• The southern two thirds of Australia have an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures² (over 50% chance), with the highest chances (over 80% chance) across New South Wales and neighbouring border regions, north-east Tasmania, and western parts of Western Australia.
• Minimum temperatures are likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above average across much of Australia.
• For parts of inland eastern and southern Australia, there is no clear signal for either warmer or cooler than average minimum temperatures.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures² (over 50% chance) for much of Western Australia, parts of the eastern and central Northern Territory, and a coastal strip extending from southern Queensland to eastern Victoria, and much of Tasmania.

²Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of April to June days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• The SST analysis for the week ending 29 March 2026 shows cooler than average waters (up to 2 °C below average) to the north and west of Australia. Warmer than average waters (up to 2 °C above average) are present in most of the remaining Australian region, especially to the south-east of Australia.
• Forecasts for April to June indicate warmer-than-average SSTs are likely for much of the east and south, reaching up to 3 °C warmer than average in the western Tasman Sea. Warmer oceans can provide increased moisture and energy, that can enhance the severity of storms, cyclones and rain systems.
• The 2025–26 La Niña has ended. Collectively, oceanic and atmospheric indicators of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reflect an ENSO-neutral state.
• All models, including the Bureau's, forecast the tropical Pacific to continue warming in the coming months. Neutral ENSO conditions are expected to persist until at least late autumn, with all models indicating warming to levels consistent with El Niño by the end of winter.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD has remained neutral despite a period of elevated IOD index values from late January to early March.  Most model forecasts indicate it is likely to remain neutral until at least the end of autumn 2026.