Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for March to May shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be below average for most of the southern two-thirds of Australia.
• Daytime temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of the southern two-thirds of Australia and parts of far northern Australia.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to very likely to be above average across much of Australia.

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Rainfall—Summary

Below average autumn rainfall likely for much of the south

March to May

• Autumn rainfall is likely to be below average (60 to 80% chance) for most of the southern two-thirds of Australia. The drier than average forecast signal generally increases in extent and likelihood as the season progresses.
• For much of northern Australia, the rainfall forecast for March to May does not strongly favour a particular outcome, meaning there are roughly equal chances that rainfall will be above, below or close to average.
• This rainfall forecast from ACCESS-S is generally consistent with forecasts from most international models although ACCESS-S predicts higher chances of below average rainfall.
• There is an increased chance of unusually low rainfall¹ (over 50% chance) for parts of north-eastern Tasmania and South Australia's interior. 
• For the month of March, the rainfall forecast does not strongly favour a particular outcome for much of the country, however rainfall is likely to be above average (60 to 70% chance) for parts of Cape York Peninsula, the Top End and northern Kimberley and below average in scattered parts of southern and central Australia.

¹Unusually low rainfall is that in the driest 20% of March to May records between 1981 and 2018.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer than average autumn days and nights likely across most of Australia

March to May

• Maximum temperatures for autumn are very likely to be above average (more than 80% chance) across most of Australia.
• The chance of above average maximum temperatures is closer to 50% for northern parts of Queensland and the Northern Territory, where rainfall and increased cloud cover, particularly during March, may act to moderate temperatures.
• These temperature forecasts from ACCESS-S are generally consistent with most international models, although ACCESS-S predicts higher chances of warmer than average temperatures, especially over the northern interior of Australia.
• Much of Australia has an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures² (over 50% chance), with the strongest chances in north-eastern Tasmania, and far western and eastern Australia (over 70% chance).
• Minimum temperatures are likely to be above average (60% to over 80% chance) across most of Australia, with lower chances (closer to 50%) for the Kimberley, central Australia and some inland parts of south-eastern Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures² (over 50% chance) for parts of far western Australia and the Cape York Peninsula.

²Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of March to May days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during January 2026 were the sixth warmest on record in the Australian region and the fourth warmest for the global average.
• The sea surface temperature (SST) analysis for the week ending 8 February 2026 shows warmer than average waters persist off parts of the Western Australian coastline, in particular the Gascoyne and south-western Pilbara coasts. Cooler than average waters remain in the Tasman Sea, Bass Strait and in the Arafura and Timor seas to Australia's north.
• Forecasts for March to May show SSTs are likely to be warmer-than-average across much of the Australian region, but closer to average off parts of the southern and northern Australian coasts. Warmer oceans can provide increased moisture and energy, that can enhance the severity of storms, cyclones and rain systems.
• La Niña is easing in the tropical Pacific with a return to ENSO-neutral conditions expected in late summer or early autumn. The Bureau's model indicates a neutral ENSO state will continue through to at least late autumn, consistent with most assessed international models.
• While some models suggest the possibility of El Niño development from June, forecasts beyond autumn remain highly uncertain. The large spread of outcomes across models reflects the low predictability at long lead times typical for this time of year, with reliability expected to improve as autumn progresses.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD is typically inactive from December to April. Model forecasts expect the IOD to remain in a neutral state until at least the end of autumn 2026.