Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for February to April shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be below average in parts of Tasmania and Western Australia, and above average in parts of the north and east. Elsewhere there's no strong signal indicating wetter or drier than average conditions.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average across Australia.
• Overnight temperatures are very likely be above average across much of Australia.

Help us improve and shape our future long-range forecasts through a short survey.

Rainfall—Summary

Drier in parts of Australia's far south-east and west, wetter in parts of the east

February to April

• Rainfall is likely to be above average (60% to 70% chance) for parts of Queensland, New South Wales and the tropical north.
• Rainfall is likely to be below average (60 to 70% chance) for western Tasmania and western and northern Western Australia. For much of southern Australia, a drier forecast signal is more prominent later in the outlook period.
• For large parts of Australia, the rainfall forecast does not strongly favour any outcome, meaning there are roughly equal chances that February to April rainfall will be above, below or close to average.
• February to April falls within the wet season for northern Australia when high-impact rainfall events regularly occur. There are increased chances of above average rainfall during March across the tropical north.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer than average days and nights likely across most of Australia

February to April

• Maximum temperatures are likely to very likely to be above average (60% to over 80% chance) across most of Australia.
• Above average maximum temperatures are less likely across much of the north during March, reflecting the forecast for wetter conditions and increased cloud cover.
• Some areas have an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures¹ (over 50% chance), including Tasmania, parts of Western Australia including the Pilbara, and the interior east, inland of the Great Dividing Range.
• Minimum temperatures are very likely to be above average (more than 80% chance) across most of Australia, with lower chances (60 to 80% chance) across southern Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures¹ (over 50% chance) across much of northern and eastern Australia, with the strongest chances in the tropical north and parts of the east (over 70% chance).

¹Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of February to April days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Australian region were the third warmest on record for December. Global SSTs were the fourth warmest on record for December 2025.
• SSTs for the week ending 18 January 2026 show warmer than average waters off much of Western Australia and the northern NSW coast. Waters are cooler than average off the south-east Australian coast, and to Australia's north. SSTs have cooled in recent weeks over the Coral Sea, with waters off eastern Queensland now close to average.
• Forecasts for February to April show warmer-than-average SSTs are likely across much of the Australian region, with notable warming predicted in the Tasman Sea. Warmer oceans can provide increased moisture and energy, that can enhance the severity of storms, cyclones and rain systems.
• A weak La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific. The Bureau's model predicts that temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are likely to return to a neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state in late summer. This timing aligns with most international models assessed.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD is typically inactive from December to April.