Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for December to February shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be above average for much of south-eastern Queensland and eastern New South Wales, below average in much of the far north.
• Daytime temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of Australia.
• Overnight temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of Australia.

Rainfall—Summary

Above average rainfall likely for much of south-eastern Queensland and eastern New South Wales, below average in the far north

December to February

• December to February rainfall is likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above average across much of south-eastern Queensland and New South Wales except in the western-most parts of the state. Small areas of central South Australia and south-west Western Australia also have an increased chance (60 to 70%) of above average rainfall.
• The wet signal is more pronounced during December, extending to cover much of the southern two-thirds of the mainland excluding most of Victoria and far south-east South Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high summer rainfall¹ (40 to 70% chance) across parts of south-eastern Queensland and eastern New South Wales.
• In contrast, below average rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) for much of the tropical north, extending across the Gascoyne Coast of Western Australia to Cape York Peninsula in Queensland.
• There is an increased chance of unusually low rainfall¹ (40 to 60% chance) for parts of the north-western coastline of Western Australia.
• For most other areas, there is no clear signal for either wetter or drier conditions, meaning there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.

¹Unusually low/high rainfall is that in the driest/wettest 20% of December to February records between 1981 and 2018. Select your location on the map for more localised information.

Temperature—Summary

Above average temperatures likely across Australia, especially for the far north

December to February

• December to February maximum temperatures are very likely to be above average (greater than 80% chance) across almost all of Australia.
• There is an increased likelihood (over 50% chance) of unusually high maximum temperatures² across much of Australia, with the highest chances (over 70%) across eastern parts of New South Wales, eastern Victoria, eastern Tasmania, and much of the tropical far north. For much of Australia, this season represents the hottest time of year.
• Minimum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) to be above average across almost all of Australia.
• The chance of unusually high minimum temperatures² is very high (60% to over 80% chance) for much of the country excluding around the Gascoyne Coast of Western Australia, south-east South Australia and western Victoria. This represents 3 to 4 times the normal likelihood.

²Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of December to February days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018. Select your location on the map for more localised information.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to 4 months ahead. The model simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may evolve, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These indicators mainly reflect interactions between the ocean and atmosphere.

Current climate indicators:

• A strong El Niño is underway and continues to strengthen. All climate models, including the bureau's, forecast further warming of the tropical Pacific, with El Niño likely to peak around November to December as a very strong event.
• A strong El Niño signal in the tropical Pacific does not necessarily mean strong impacts on Australia's rainfall and temperature; ENSO is only one of several factors that can influence Australia’s seasonal weather and climate.
• A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is underway and forecast to continue during spring before returning to neutral in early summer.
• The sea surface temperature (SST) analysis for the week ending 1 November 2026 shows warmer than average waters around most of Australia's south and south-east where SSTs are up to 3 °C above average. SSTs to Australia's north and north-east are average to below average.
• SSTs in the Australian region are forecast to warm over the coming months, particularly to Australia's north and in the Coral Sea. Warmer waters can enhance atmospheric moisture and energy that can fuel storms and rain systems, increasing potential for high intensity rainfall.
• Global SSTs remain at record levels. October 2026 was the warmest October on record at 1.05 °C above the 1961–1990 average, the largest monthly positive anomaly on record since 1900.