Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for July to September shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be below average across parts of southern and eastern Australia.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average south of the tropics.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average for much of Australia.

Rainfall—Summary 

Below average July to September rainfall likely across parts of southern and eastern Australia

July to September

• July to September rainfall is likely to be below average (60% to 80% chance) for the South West Land Division of Western Australia, parts of the eastern mainland west of the Divide including south-east South Australia, and northern and eastern Tasmania.
• There is an increased chance of unusually low rainfall¹ (40% to 70% chance) across parts of south-west Western Australia and south-east Australia.
• Above average rainfall is likely for parts the north. While there is an increased chance of above average rainfall across parts of the far north, this forecast period falls within the northern Australian dry season, when most of the tropical north, except for the east coast of Cape York Peninsula, typically receives very little rainfall. Therefore, only small amounts of rainfall, often less than 20 mm, can be enough to exceed seasonal averages.
• For most other areas, there is no clear signal for either wetter or drier conditions, meaning there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
• Over southern and eastern Australia, this rainfall forecast from ACCESS-S is generally consistent with forecasts from most international models, which also show below average rainfall. However, the dry signal is generally more widespread in other models, covering a larger part of Australia than ACCESS-S.

¹Unusually low rainfall is that in the driest 20% of July to September records between 1981 and 2018.

Temperature—Summary

Above average temperatures across much of Australia

July to September

• July to September maximum temperatures are likely to be above average (60% to greater than 80% chance) across most of Australia south of the tropics.
• Maximum temperatures are likely to be below average (60 to 80% chance) across northern parts of Queensland, the Northern Territory, and Western Australia.
• There is an increased chance (over 60% chance) of unusually high maximum temperatures² across much of eastern and western Australia with the highest chances (over 80% chance) across western parts of Western Australia, eastern New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania.

• Minimum temperatures are likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above average across most of Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures² (over 60% chance) for south-east Queensland, eastern and southern New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania, southern and western South Australia and much of the southern two-thirds of Western Australia.
• These temperature forecasts are generally consistent with most international models, although ACCESS-S predicts higher chances of warmer than average temperatures.

²Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of July to September days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• El Niño is underway in the tropical Pacific. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central tropical Pacific are above El Niño thresholds, and atmospheric indicators are also aligning with an El Niño state. This suggests the ocean and atmosphere are now acting to reinforce the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state, which is likely to strengthen and sustain an ENSO event until at least the end of the year.
• All models, including the Bureau's, forecast the tropical Pacific to continue warming in the coming months. Forecasts are pointing towards a strong to very strong El Niño event, based on the extent of warming in the central tropical Pacific. A strong El Niño signal in the Niño3.4 region does not necessarily mean strong impacts on Australia's climate; ENSO is only one of many factors that can influence Australia’s seasonal weather and climate.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. Most models suggest a positive IOD event is likely during winter-spring. However, model forecasts show a large variation in both the timing and strength of this potential event.
• The SST analysis for the week ending 14 June 2026 shows water temperatures are average to above average around most of Australia. Waters are especially warm along the New South Wales and eastern Tasmania coasts (peaking at around 3 to 4 °C above average). This SST pattern is forecast to continue in the coming months.
• More broadly, global sea surface temperatures are currently very warm, with May 2026 global SSTs the warmest May on record (since 1900).