Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for June to August shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be below average across much of southern, central and eastern Australia.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia except in parts of the north.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average for much of Australia.

Rainfall—Summary 

Below average winter rainfall likely across southern, central and eastern Australia

June to August

• Winter rainfall is likely to be below average (60% to 80% chance) for south-west Western Australia, and central and eastern regions south of the tropics including eastern Tasmania.
• There is an increased chance of unusually low rainfall¹ (40 to 60% chance) across parts of south-west Western Australia, southern South Australia and broad areas across the Murray-Darling Basin.
• While there is an increased chance of above average rainfall across parts of the far north, this forecast period falls within the northern Australian dry season, when most of the tropical north, except for the east coast of Cape York Peninsula, typically receives very little rainfall. Therefore, only small amounts of rainfall, often less than 20 mm, can be enough to exceed seasonal averages.
• For most other areas, there is no clear signal for either wetter or drier conditions, meaning there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
• For June alone, below average rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) across much of Australia.

¹Unusually low rainfall is that in the driest 20% of June to August records between 1981 and 2018.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer than average days and nights across much of Australia

June to August

• Winter maximum temperatures are likely to be above average (60% to greater than 80% chance) across most of Australia, except for parts of the north.

• For much of the southern half of Australia, there is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures², with the highest chances (over 70% chance) across Tasmania, Victoria, New South Wales, southern Queensland, southern South Australia, as and broad areas of Western Australia.
• Minimum temperatures are likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above average across much of Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures² (over 60% chance) for Tasmania, southern and eastern Victoria, eastern New South Wales and parts of western and southern Western Australia.

²Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of June to August days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral though there are increasing signs of El Niño development in the tropical Pacific, with SSTs likely to reach El Niño thresholds in early winter. For El Niño to be considered established, a sustained atmospheric response must be observed. Atmospheric indicators remain largely consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions while continuing to trend towards an El Niño state.
• There remains some uncertainty in the likely strength of this El Niño event. Models indicate it will be at least moderate in strength, with the possibility of a strong event, based on the extent of warming in the central tropical Pacific. A strong El Niño signal in the Nino3.4 region does not necessarily mean strong impacts on Australia's climate.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. There is substantial uncertainty in the forecast state of the IOD. Most models indicate the IOD is likely to remain neutral until at least early winter, with the development of a positive IOD event possible during winter–spring. Model forecasts show a large variation in both timing and strength of this potential event.
• The sea surface temperature (SST) analysis for the week ending 24 May 2026 shows waters are near average around much of Australia except to the south-east where SSTs are above average. Waters are especially warm along the New South Wales coast and around Tasmania (peaking at around 3 to 4 °C above average).
• SST forecasts for June to August predict warmer-than-average waters around much of Australia, with temperatures up to 2 °C warmer than average in the Tasman Sea and to Australia's south-west.