Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for September to November shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be below average across parts of the south and east and above average across much of the western half of Australia.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average south of the tropics.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia.

Rainfall—Summary

Below average spring rainfall across parts of the south and east; above average in the west

September to November

• Spring rainfall is likely to be below average (60% to greater than 80% chance) for the far south-west of Western Australia, south-eastern Australia including Tasmania, parts of eastern and northern Queensland and the northern Top End of the Northern Territory.
• Above average rainfall is likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) over most of Western Australia extending into western parts of the Northern Territory and South Australia. During this outlook period, northern Australia transitions from the dry to the wet season, bringing increased humidity, storms, and showers.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall¹ (50 to 80% chance) across much of northern and central parts of Western Australia. Select your location on the map for more localised information.

• The dry signal is strongest early in the season, extending across much of Australia in September, before the wet signal emerges from October. While much of Australia is likely to see this seasonal shift in the forecast, southern Victoria and Tasmania maintain a drier than average forecast throughout the season.

¹Unusually low/high rainfall is that in the driest/wettest 20% of September to November records between 1981 and 2018.

Temperature—Summary

Above average temperatures likely across much of Australia during spring

September to November

• Spring maximum temperatures are likely to be above average (60% to greater than 80% chance) across most of Australia except in parts of the tropical north.
• Maximum temperatures are likely to be below average (60% to greater than 80% chance) across areas of north-eastern Queensland and the northern Kimberley.
• There is an increased likelihood (over 60% chance) of unusually high maximum temperatures² across the southern two-thirds of Australia, with the highest chances (over 80%) over most of western Western Australia and south-eastern Australia.

• Minimum temperatures are likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above average across most of Australia except in some parts of the north.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures² (over 60% chance) across much of Australia, with the highest chances (over 80%) across most of the southern two-thirds of Australia.

²Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of September to November days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• A strong El Niño is now well established and continues to strengthen.
• All models, including the bureau's, forecast the tropical Pacific to continue warming through the southern hemisphere spring, with El Niño likely peaking in late spring or summer as a very strong event.
• A strong El Niño signal in the tropical Pacific does not necessarily mean strong impacts on Australia's rainfall and temperature; ENSO is only one of many factors that can influence Australia’s seasonal weather and climate.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. After 3 weeks above the positive IOD threshold (+0.4 °C), the index has now been neutral for the past 3 weeks. Models continue to suggest a positive IOD could develop during the southern hemisphere spring, although the forecast strength of the event has decreased in recent model runs.
• The SST analysis for the week ending 30 August 2026 shows warmer than average waters around most of Australia and mostly near average temperatures to the north. Waters are especially warm along the southern New South Wales and eastern and southern Tasmania coasts.
• Most of the Australian region is forecast to warm over the coming months, particularly to Australia's west. Warmer waters can enhance atmospheric moisture and energy that can fuel storms and rain systems, increasing potential for high intensity rainfall.
• More broadly, global (60°S to 60°N) daily SSTs have been at record warm levels during August, exceeding previous daily records from 2024.