Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for May to July shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be below average for much of eastern Australia and parts of the south.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia.

Rainfall—Summary 

Below average May to July rainfall likely for much of eastern Australia

May to July

• Rainfall for the 3-month period from May to July is likely to be below average (60% to 80% chance) for parts of eastern Australia, including south-eastern South Australia and northern Tasmania, and in parts of south-west Australia.
• For most other areas, there is no clear signal for either wetter or drier conditions, meaning there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
• The dry signal over the three‑month period is heavily driven by strong probabilities of below‑average rainfall in May, with the forecast signal weakening later in the season.
• May marks the beginning of the northern Australian dry season, when most of the tropical north, except for the east coast of Cape York Peninsula, typically receives very little rainfall. Over this broad area, average monthly rainfall totals for May, June and July are typically less than 5 mm.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer than average days and nights across much of Australia

May to July

• Maximum temperatures over May to July are likely to be above average (60% to greater than 80% chance) across most of Australia.
• Most of Australia except for the tropical north has an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures² (over 50% chance), with the highest chances (over 70% chance) across much of New South Wales, southern Queensland, Victoria, Tasmania, and south-west Western Australia.
• Minimum temperatures are likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above average across most of Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures² (over 60% chance) for Tasmania, large parts of Western Australia, southern parts of South Australia and Victoria, and parts of the New South Wales coast.

¹Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of May to July days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• The sea surface temperature (SST) analysis for the week ending 26 April 2026 shows cooler than average waters (up to 2 °C below average) to the north, west and south-west of Australia. Waters are warmer than average (up to 2 °C above average) for most of the remaining Australian region, especially along the NSW and eastern Tasmania coasts.
• SST forecasts for May to July indicate warmer-than-average waters around much of Australia, with temperatures up to 2 °C warmer than average in the Tasman Sea. Warmer waters can increase atmospheric moisture and energy, raising the potential for more intense rainfall and weather systems when conditions are favourable.
• The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, with substantial warming in the eastern and central tropical Pacific observed in recent weeks. ENSO neutral remains the most likely state during autumn. Models indicate further warming in the tropical Pacific is likely, with a shift to El Niño possible this winter.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. Models indicate the IOD is most likely to remain neutral until the end of autumn, with a positive IOD possible during winter–spring. A few models suggest IOD development could occur earlier, during late autumn. However, forecast uncertainty associated with the IOD is currently high, with models showing a large spread of possible outcomes.